Scenarios for agriculture in 2026

The year 2025 marked a silent, yet structural, turning point in Brazilian agribusiness. After a long cycle in which growth in area, volume, and expansion were the main drivers of decision-making, the sector entered a phase where efficiency, risk, and management began to determine who remains competitive and who becomes vulnerable.

This transition did not happen due to a single factor. It is the result of the convergence of high costs, expensive capital, greater exposure to climate risks, regulatory pressure, and changes in market access. Agriculture has entered a new cycle. Less tolerant of error, less dependent on scale, and much more dependent on well-informed decisions.

2025 taught us that volume does not protect margins.

One of the main lessons of 2025 was the end of the illusion that producing more, by itself, guarantees economic sustainability. The so-called "margin scissors" opened up clearly: costs grew consistently, while commodity prices fluctuated without keeping pace with this movement.

The result was a significant drop in net profitability per hectare, even in technically well-managed systems. The message is clear: the problem is no longer productivity, but the quality of economic decisions .

In this context, producing more without cost control, without a margin protection strategy, and without risk assessment has become a factor of weakness.

The cost of capital has become a central variable in production.

Another point that gained importance in 2025 was the cost of money. With high interest rates, credit ceased to be a neutral lever and became an operational risk. Investment, operating, and expansion decisions began to require more criteria, planning, and clarity regarding return.

Capital has become selective. This directly affects:

• The profile of those who access credit;

• The type of technology that makes sense to adopt;

• The speed at which adjustments need to be made within the farm.

Financial management has ceased to be an "administrative issue" and has become part of the production strategy.

ESG is now a market passport.

By 2025, the ESG agenda has also shifted its focus. It has moved beyond aspirational discourse and has become a condition for market access , or a guarantor of market positioning, especially in supply chains with international exposure.

Traceability, zero-deforestation criteria, proof of environmental and social practices, and alignment with regulations such as the EUDR (European Union Anti-Deforestation Regulation) have become prerequisites, not differentiating factors.

In other words, the market began demanding proof , not intent. Data, records, and evidence became as relevant as the production itself.

2026: The Year of Decision-Driven Efficiency

If 2025 was the year of the reality check, 2026 is likely to be the year of the strategic response. The prevailing logic is clear: it's not about producing more, but about producing better , with precise decisions and active margin protection.

This involves:

• careful selection of technologies;

• Intelligent use of risk management tools;

• Focus on efficiency per area, per animal, and per unit of product;

• Ability to adapt quickly to adverse climate and economic scenarios.

The efficiency that matters in 2026 goes beyond technical aspects. It also includes economic, environmental, and organizational factors.

Technology is only valuable when it delivers results.

Another strong message from this new cycle is the end of "technology for technology's sake." Digital tools, platforms, and solutions are only sustainable when they generate a measurable impact on business results.

Pretty dashboards don't pay the bills. What really matters is:

• loss reduction;

• improved decision-making;

• Risk anticipation;

• generating real value.

Just like ESG, technology is now becoming a decision-making tool, not a showcase.

What does all this change in dairy farming?

Although many analyses start from the agricultural sector, the lessons from this new cycle are fully applicable to dairy farming.

In milk production, efficiency is no longer just about liters per cow, but about:

• cost due to increased solids content;

• efficient use of the area;

• herd structure;

• ability to demonstrate productive and environmental practices.

The pressure for data, traceability, and consistency also extends to the industry and the supply chain as a whole. If the livestock sector cannot explain its numbers, risks, and practices, the activity is likely to lose ground, even if it is technically validated.

Regenerative Awakening as a partner in this new phase.

In a scenario where efficiency, proof, and collective learning become central, technical communities, accessible tools, and structured knowledge exchange cease to be complementary and become strategic. It is in this context that initiatives like Regenerative Awakening gain practical relevance.

The new cycle of agriculture will not be overcome in isolation. It requires scenario analysis, reliable data, continuous learning, and decisions connected to the reality of those in the field.

2026 will not be an easy year, but it will be a decisive year for those who know how to transform information into action, discourse into practice, and sustainability into intelligence applied to production.

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How to participate in the Regenerative Awakening

The Regenerative Awakening is a joint initiative of ESGpec and MilkPoint , created to expand access to practical sustainability tools in dairy farming.

Through the project, producers can participate for free and obtain structured indicators of:

• Carbon footprint

• Animal welfare

• Farm ESG performance

The methodologies follow internationally recognized guidelines and are adapted to the reality of Brazilian dairy production.

Access is individual, valid for 12 months, and includes email support throughout the entire period.

To participate, simply visit: despertarregenerativo.com.br and complete the registration.

Learn about your farm's ESG indicators, understand where the opportunities for improvement lie, and transform data into decisions. Start your regenerative awakening today.

In a cycle where proving is worth more than promising, measuring is the first step to evolving.