Agriculture and Brazil's new climate accounting: deforestation on the scales

Why will some deforestation be included in the agriculture sector's decarbonization plans, and what changes will this make?

Brazil took a decisive step in implementing its climate plan. On July 18, 2025, the federal government presented seven sectoral decarbonization plans, which are part of the National Mitigation Strategy, part of the Climate Plan.

A notable point was that, for the first time, it was defined that emissions resulting from deforestation on private rural properties will no longer be recorded in the "Land Use Change and Forests" sector of the National Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventory and will instead be recorded directly in the Agriculture sector . This change does not apply to other sectors that also account for emissions resulting from deforestation, such as urban and industrial expansion (infrastructure projects, subdivisions, and occupations), mining and mineral extraction (open-pit mining and associated activities), and forestry (replacement of native vegetation with planted forests).

The change is methodological and strategic: emissions associated with the conversion of native vegetation for agricultural use will be incorporated into the sector's account, creating a direct link between sectoral responsibility and the results of mitigation actions. Previously, all deforestation was grouped into a single category, according to the IPCC classification, without distinction by activity.

Now, the Brazilian government has adopted an internal organization that distributes these emissions according to the practical responsibilities and control instruments available to each sector. The result: agriculture is now directly responsible for the majority of emissions linked to deforestation on private lands, but it will also be able to offset gains from the recovery of degraded areas and the adoption of other regenerative practices.

The size of the responsibility

According to data from the National GHG Inventory, gross emissions from land-use change totaled 1.393 billion tons of CO₂ in 2022. Of this total, approximately 70% are linked to agricultural and livestock production areas, meaning these emissions now form part of the agricultural sector's "carbon budget" in national plans.

The goals for the sector are ambitious:

• Reduce total emissions to 891 million tonnes of CO₂ by 2030

• Reach 640 to 700 million tons by 2035

The reduction depends mainly on one key strategy: drastically reducing deforestation linked to agricultural production .

What goes into the agriculture and livestock plan?

The agricultural sector plan is structured around 10 priority levers , divided between impactful (direct) and structuring (enabling) actions:

Impactful actions (direct mitigation):

1. Recovery of degraded areas

2. Integrated systems (crop-livestock-forestry)

3. Sustainable forestry production

4. Increased productivity

5. Sustainable expansion of irrigation

6. Loss reduction and waste utilization

7. Expansion of agroecological practices

8. Biofuel production

9. Reducing legal deforestation and fighting fires

10. Low carbon aquaculture

Structuring actions:

• Reformulation of rural credit with climate criteria

• Regulation of Payment for Environmental Services (PES)

• Support for the bioeconomy and digitalization

• Governance, technical assistance and training

The execution will be coordinated by four ministries: Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA), Agrarian Development (MDA), Fisheries (MPA) and Environment and Climate Change (MMA).

Why does this decision matter?

The allocation of emissions associated with deforestation to the agricultural sector's account reconfigures the sector's role in Brazil's climate commitments , especially on the eve of COP30, which will be held in Belém in November of this year.

This change reinforces the productive sector's responsibility for practices such as land use and recovery of degraded areas, and reducing deforestation, while also bringing Brazil into line with international expectations for traceability and climate commitment and driving debates on climate finance and PSA (Payment for Environmental Services).

This decision also generated tensions . Industry representatives are analyzing the plans and indicate that integrating sectoral goals with credit, innovation, and rural extension policies will be crucial for the transition to occur in a fair and viable manner.

The sectoral plans will be open for public consultation from July 28 to August 18, 2025. After this period, contributions will be evaluated and the final content will be submitted for approval by an interministerial council composed of all the ministries involved. After approval, the plans will be officially published and enter the implementation and monitoring phase, guiding sectoral decarbonization actions in the country.

Conclusion

By including emissions associated with land-use change in the agricultural sector's budget, Brazil is sending an important signal to the international community: decarbonization will be built on more transparent and sectorally anchored foundations.

For the sector, this represents a huge responsibility in light of Brazil's climate commitment, but it also brings with it the opportunity to lead regeneration with data, technological solutions, and smarter, more integrated production models.

Source note

This article was prepared based on the original content published by the Reset portal, in the article: “In decarbonization plans, part of the deforestation enters the account of the agribusiness” , available at: https://capitalreset.uol.com.br/clima/cop/em-planos-de-descarbonizacao-parte-do-desmatamento-entra-na-conta-do-agro . All data, terms and plan structure presented here reflect the information disclosed in the report of July 22, 2025.

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